I consider Robert Scoble a good friend, but he is way off when he writes Netflix is Dead. He probably didn't know that Netflix is expected to unveil a digital download strategy this month, so I think he should wait to hear what they have planned before he writes them off. Hastings and his crew faced Wal-Mart and won (how many companies can say that?), and they have about 3 times the number of online subscribers as Blockbuster. If Netflix acquires 15 - 20 million customers before downloads take off, they can probably survive the transition.
The problem with the existing download services is the lack of content. The existing download services have at most 2,000 movies, and Netflix stocks 70,000 titles. Apple, the hot topic of conversation this week, has only 250 movies for sale (source: Apple presentation at Macworld). Most services sell the movies at the same price at retail, or rent them for only 24 hours after you start playing them. The studios also encrypt them so they aren't as portable or as convenient as a DVD.
I know downloads are the future, but it will be a long time before Verisign kills Netflix (I think they should worry more about Blockbuster and Microsoft).
What do you think? What would kill Netflix?
Thanks to Gowan, Adnan, and Lamarr for sending this in.