What Will Happen To Netflix in the Next 2 Years?

Rick Aristotle Munarriz travels through time and gives us an idea as to what will happen to Netflix in the next 2 years, Netflix in 2010.

Blockbuster still rents movies, but that's just a small fraction of its business. The chain has become more like a RadioShack, making the most of its small-box footprint as a Jack of all trades that specializes in media entertainment. Some of its stores are even installing private home-theater rooms, so customers can enjoy fresh releases with a store-delivered meal. It's wacky, but I hear that some of the test stores have a waiting list for the weekend time slots.

With Blockbuster out of the way, Netflix's biggest rival is Amazon.com. Once Amazon bought significant stakes in both Gamefly and Blockbuster's Total Access in 2009 -- buying majority stakes instead of outright purchases in complicated deals, to avoid the forced sales-tax issue through its namesake stores -- Netflix had no choice but to follow Amazon into video-game rentals.

What do you think Netflix will be like in 2010?

Comments

[NETFLIX MOVIE BURNER]

1. i think by 2010 netflix is going to have that scanning device that scans the bar code and notifies the netflix offices so that ur next movies can be ready to send out the same day...

2. by 2010 Games should already be available for rental OR it will purchase an already exsisting and established online game rental company.

3. by 2010 netflix authorized shirts will be available for purchase on netflix.com lol

4. by 2010 netflix will still be throttling and still use fancy "User Aggrement" words in order to get around it lol

[Gir]

Like a RadioShack? I guess Rick thinks BB will be an also-ran.

No, in 2 years I think things will be much like they are today, but with Apple, NetFlix, and possibly Microsoft making larger and larger inroads to delivering movies on-line. Even with Unbox, I don't foresee Amazon making much of a dent. I certainly don't see them taking over Total Access; how would they do in-store exchange?

[Edward R Murrow]

What is it with the Motley Fool? Every single day, someone from Motley Fool has something to write about Netflix. Yet they don't cover market stalwarts such as VLO, MO, KFT, ING and other blue chippers.

Why would anyone believe anything that Rick has to write about Netflix since he has the following at the end of every article he writes about Netflix:
"Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz has been a Netflix subscriber -- and shareholder -- since 2002"

Whoa, talk about pump and dump...

[Old Timer Too]

Most of these predictions are way, way out on that proverbial limb. Fortunately, words are cheap (look at what I write).

However, I think there is some truth behind the BB becoming like Radio Shack. The Shack has hit bottom (and wont recover), mostly because the market isn't there. Very few folks actually know what to do with a soldering iron/gun/torch, other than maybe for wire-based crafts (faery wings?).

That won't happen (hitting bottom and staying there) with BB as the rental business will continue to be brisk over the next few years. DVDs are here to stay (for a while, anyway) and with the studios recognizing the kind of profit they do from sales, they are not likely to go the way of the do-do bird soon.

But I do see BB attempting to do more with its stores, especially in the way of sales. After all, the idea is to become the 7-11 of the video rental store. Smaller with wider offerings (or, at least, less area dedicated to racks of rentals) and the built in home theater has probably been considered. Unfortunately, their floor space is far too limited to accommodate more than a small group of people at a time, especially if they plan to serve pizza and beer. I still look forward to being able to pick up some kind of fountain drink (latte, slurpy, whatever) when I pick up a film to watch later.

As to NF changes? I have my doubts that we'll see anything that big. Surely, uh, Shirley they will do more in the VOD department, but (as I've said before) if the ISPs limit delivered bandwidth, that may be a dead horse that isn't going anywhere. And the cable ISP companies aren't about to let an outsider deliver films through their system unless forced to do so by deregulation regulations.

Getting back to BB, now that's a more interesting account on which we can make predictions. I see them trying all sorts of things (like the bundled PS3 mentioned just a bit earlier) but all of these are going to fall far short of the desired result. The reason is because the market is already saturated with Wal-Mart, Best Buy, and Circuit City providing the same kind of deals with better pricing. What BB needs to do is to hook up with those retailers and get the rental deals included. NF has been there for years with NF advertising and "free trials" (the same kind you get just by signing up).

Would I buy any kind of "other" entertainment from BB? I'm speaking of board games, et al, that were offered when Shrek 3 came out. The answer is: not from BB. I'd be more likely to buy when I went toy shopping at Wal-Mart or Toys R Us.

What BB has to do is to get their collective act together and quit alienating customers. They can do that by being rock solid in their offerings and quit jacking the customers around with gimmick deals. Right now, they are a little like offering this great price on cable or phone and then tacking on every kind of fee imaginable, including my favorite - the monthly fee for just using the service, regardless of plan.

Oh, that just gave me an idea. Maybe BB will become the next Comcast or Verizon... Gee, a fee for just carrying a BB card?

[Jim]

Netflix in 2010? Prediction: it will no longer utilize electricity in its distribution centers, because all operations will be fueled by the company's own sense of self-satisfaction.

NF is never going to rent games through their NF site. They may one day buy a company, such as Gamefly, but they will keep those separate. It's just not going to happen the way this dude says it will.

[Garblesnorf]

NETFLIX MOVIE BURNER,

You're missing the point about why Netflix doesn't ship movies until they check the last movies in. It's an exchange system. They're waiting for your movie to get back so they can send it to someone else. If they send you movies before your last ones get back, then they're limiting their available inventory.

Netflix doesn't seem like the type of company to purchase another company, nor does it seem at all interested in renting games. That seems to be a deadend business venture at this point.

[netflixguy2]

"Netflix doesn't seem like the type of company to purchase another company, nor does it seem at all interested in renting games. That seems to be a deadend business venture at this point."

I really think Netflix is missing the boat by not offering game rentals. Every video rental store in America seems to have a video game section. Why not Netflix? I think it's almost expected by some consumers. I'm not saying everyone wants it or will use it, I just think it should be available.

[jedipunk]

I would like to see NF drop box kiosks at most post offices that are wired to NF to let them know my movie has been "dropped" and that they can send the next one. I would think having more movies in the mail or at homes could reduce storage needed at facilities (since my next movie will be delivered before my current movie has arrived).

To help accomodate this, post offices will offer NF mailers for a fee should you lose your mailer.

NF will also create a new mailer. Possibly reusable.

[Netlfix Movie Burner]

TO GARBLESNORF

im not sure who but theres an online rental service that does the scanning thing... i could see it happening ... along with an increase in price but id say its well worth it ....like ME i burn every movie i rent they way i do it is i get my movies on monday morning at work (12:00 pm) when the mail gets dropped off and i rip them to my external hard drive at work and ship them same day (3:30pm) so Netflix makes no money off of me ... they actually lose money but with the shipping scanner thing i would increase the way i burn .... lolol

[Old Timer Too]

BB scans its envelopes and logs the films returned - at its stores. If returned early enough (probably before 8 or 9 pm), and not on a weekend, the next available discs are usually shipped the next day. It doesn't matter if you are mail only or Total Access. It works the same way for both.

The bar code on the return envelope identifies you and the particular film you have in that envelope.

[Edward R Murrow]

Motley Fool: there you go again!
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2008/01/30/why-you-should-be-watching-now.aspx

"First, iTunes required that I download Ocean's Thirteen as if I were buying it. Not so with Watch Now, which demands only a one-time download of the Netflix movie player. The rub? iTunes isn't really streaming video. At least not the way Netflix, YouTube, or others do it."

Tim Beyers, how can being tethered to a PC in order to watch content that is streamed *POSSIBLY* better than a one time download to an iPod/iPhone that follows me where ever I go? I'm starting to believe that David Gardner went way long on NFLX and now he has all his spin b!tches writing non-stop NFLX spin articles.

Is there anyone out there (who understands technology) who really believes that streaming is better than download?

Streaming *SUCKS*, IMHO!

[Old Timer Too]

Streaming vs download - which is better?

That's a loaded question. The answer depends upon the individual's needs, not which is "better." Both methods have merit.

If I want a current "broadcast" then streaming is fine, because I'm watching it like I would television. If I want background music to work by, I may tune in KING.ORG and use abacast to stream the high-qualtiy FM feed to my computer's speakers. If I want the recording, I'll ordered it through ArkivMusic.com.

If I want to add something to my library and find it on iTunes, I'll buy it and download and burn it, especially if it is a single track.

Quality: CD / Abacast / iTunes. One is purchase, one is streaming, and one is download. Take your pick. I use all three.