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fluff

Here is somewhat of an explanation on why the stock is taking a beating..
http://seekingalpha.com/article/265728-netflix-q1-earnings-call-more-questions-and-confusion
Add to that competition, failed international expansion and market saturation in the US.....But the biggest is the rediculous rising content cost and negative sentiment comming from not just warner but all studios just all aren't so vocal. Also sugar coating everything with a phony conference call and it all leads to no confidence in this company by investors. When you have back to back quarters of CFO and Investor Relations personal walk out the week before earnings call when they are the ones who sign the 8K and 10K it's suspect. Netflix keeps putting of expenses for down the road building a house of cards that will colapse sooner rather then later.

fluff

@BP insert your comment here. (It seems like I can't post without your stupid comments to follow.)

IND

Yeah, Netflix stock really nosedived to 92% of it's previous value. I'll bet a lot of people's lives were ruined by that...

flawed

That was just Day 1. The stock started today at Open: $228.67 and it's already down a couple hundred million market cap to Mkt Cap: $11.99B. 226.78 -2.13‎ (-0.93%‎) Apr 27 10:38am ET

Meanwhile irresponsible firms like Credit Suiess, Goldman Sacs raise there outlooks for NFLX in one gialnt scam to bilk investors out of millions just so they can be in line for handling a stock split if it ever happens. They raise their price to whatever as they sell their shares behind the scenes. They use reasons like international expansion for this my question is where do the analysts think international expansion will be? In the UK AMZN's already in. In Australia, FOXTEL is about to launch a subscription service and anyway, downloads are limited under most plans. I doubt the non-English speaking countries are going to love old American re-runs.

Not to mention the little problem of The pertinent question for the CFO -- explain how you could possibly believe/claim that "A/P should reverse in Q1" ?

Because it appears to be an indefensible claim. Which is why the damage control attempt on the Q1 call. A/P ended up increasing $78MM. Along with new guidance of "and will continue to increase from here".

It matters because it's very material information, perhaps as material as it gets -- cash flow, which is why A/P has been scrutinized and will continue to be scrutinized.

IND

"The stock started today at Open: $228.67 and it's already down a couple hundred million market cap to Mkt Cap: $11.99B. 226.78 -2.13‎ (-0.93%‎) Apr 27 10:38am ET "

Oh...another 0.93% - you're right, I did underestimate the effect.

Hank

Now the stock is up by 4 bucks on the day, so they've clearly turned the company around in the last couple of hours.

In fact, their market cap is up around 300 million dollars (in just two hours work, amazing!), so they must be doing something right over there.

From this data I can confidently predict the future and at this rate the stock will double again in half a year.

BP

@ flawed

Let's perform a stock experiment: If I hit you with a MACK truck going 1mph for every percent Netflix's stock has dropped, and then waited a minute to call an ambulance for every actual dollar it has dropped, what would the net effect be on your health?

FUCKING NOTHING BECAUSE A MACK TRUCK TRAVELING AT ONE MILE PER HOUR IS EVERY BIT AS DANGEROUS AS ONE OF THE WORLD'S PREMIER STOCKS DROPPING LESS THAN A PERCENTAGE POINT IN A DAY ONLY TO GAIN MOST OF IT BACK IN LESS THAN A WEEK.

Fuck to the off.

-BP

Bob Emmerich

While being slightly amused by all the jolly/fluff stuff, it just occurred to me I have NO IDEA why they are commenting on here? Is it to get me to sell my stock (I don't have any that I'm aware of)? Is it to get me to look to BB or Hulu as a subscriber? The tone and attitude and message are so negative but I see no point. Following the doomsday caravan across the south makes more sense.

flawed

@Hank check back at the end of the day.

Hank

Once again missing the point, jolly.

If the stock is up at the end of the day will you promise to end your idiotic campaign and never post here again?

flawed

@BP It's hilarious that you only comment these days to me nothing else just to me. No comments about articles just comments about my comments directed at me(am I getting to you, am I getting to you? HA).

Nice use of the F word to makes you sound classy and knowledgeable.
Hard for you to communicate without personal attacks and foul language. (@MIKE I THOUGHT THESE ACTS WERE GOING TO BE BANNED?)

Homer

Did you seriously just ask Mike for help, was your mom not around to protect you? While BP might push the boundaries of the new rules, at least his posts are relevant and make sense. You keep posting the same thing in every thread, yet nobody ever seems to agree, nor care. Please find a new forum with like-minded people. I'm sure they are out there, obviously they just don't frequent this blog (Maybe give FoxNews a try). As for this article, it's pretty common for stocks to fluctuate daily, so anyone who would react to a less than 1% change in a day is probably not going to have much success in the market. If you look at the long term trending of Netflix your argument holds no water and every competitor that has tried to dethrone Netflix in the past has not only been unsuccesful but usually loses their business all together

flawed

@Homer did you see the title of the article I would say I'm exactly on topic.

You said "at least his posts (BP) are relevant and make sense"
Look back BP only comments these days to make remarks to me. He hasn't comment on a post in quite a while.

I also wasn't asking Mike for help I was holding him accountable he's the one posting the new rules then not following them when it comes to this guy BP. I could care less what BP writes I get a kick out of it not my rules just following them. You know me I wouldn't want to offend anybody : ).

BP

@ flawed

U mad, bro.

-BP

Roy

@Bob Emmerich,

I think the issue here is that the mandate for what's relevant on hackingnetflix is pretty vague and open-ended. That means that we see posts here about things like:
- New Netflix-relevant technology;
- Rumours about Netflix expansion (e.g. Netflix's impending push into Tuvalu);
- Discussions of Netflix as a company and its culture (e.g. a recent conversation about what it's like to work at Netflix);
- Discussions of issues using Netflix (e.g. lost DVDs, encoding issues, problems with PSN, outages, etc);
- Discussion of Netflix as a stock (NFLX)

And, of course, other discussions.

That, in itself, is not at all bad (though at some point perhaps the 'hacking' part of 'hackingnetflix' is less relevant for some of these conversations);

The thing that happens, then, is that some people are just interested in a subset of these topics. That means they're likely going to disproportionally participate in conversations on these topics (and probably disproportionally quiet in conversations on other topics). flawed/jolly/WhateverTheyCallThemselvesToday appear/s to be primarily interested in stock-related topics, and so we're likely to see them participate at an unusual level on these conversations.

That, by itself, is not that unusual from seeing me, for example, participate in the conversations I most care about (Netflix culture, technical problems I can actually do something about (which basically really means "technical problems about which I know who to talk about")) and not participate, in general, in other discussions (I could write volumes about why I don't care about Netflix's stock price as anything other than an idle curiosity).

It's important to note that I'm just addressing a question around why jolly would be talking a lot about Netflix's stock price; I'm not addressing why they appear to have a very strong, consistent, outlook on Netflix (which does not seem to be largely separated from their outlook on Netflix as a company), nor whether or not that outlook is correct. That's mostly because, frankly, I have no clue about the stock market (and I like it that way :) ).

-roy

Lisa

@ 2:46pm. 234.44 +5.53‎ (2.41%‎) Apr 27 2:46pm
What a beating it's taking eh?

flawed

Well put Roy.

@BP your out of your league so no I'm not mad at you... Your doing the best with what you got.

flawed

FEED ME!!!!

flawed

The sum of all evil when it comes to Netflix stock....

There are a group of Billionaires who get together and decide the price of Netflix, Amazon and the other Cramer stocks, they chose Cramer stocks cause ignorant little retail watches TV and knows nothing else except what he is told on the stupid TV box. The Billionaires determine how high and how low they will set the price of the stock as they destroy all sheep Long and Short. Look at Amazon, missed by 40 cents horrible earnings and the stock is up. Its all a Madoff like scam but it's all legal for now, fundamentals are for fooling the mass morons into believing a stock should go a certain direction, Just what the elitist billionaires need to steal you money along with the annalist who get a cut

flawed

This is an example of how Netflix is running this company their business model...

So they're not a DVD company, they're a streaming company...

... who won't let the public know what they spend on streaming.

Brilliant.

I think I'll go acquire a big pile of gold on leveraged debt and defer payments over 5 years. In the meantime I'll sell bags of gold to the public for $1 a piece. The public will love my service and they will say "This is the best service ever! Why didn't anyone else think of this?" Everyone will come to me for bags of gold and in the process I will enrich myself.

If anyone asks me how this works, or any of my bag-of-gold customers, we will say "just go enjoy your gold, silly -- you don't understand the new paradigm!"

Roy

@flawed,

I really like your business model. If you get this off the ground, I'd love to get in on the action and buy a bag of gold for $1, as long as I get physical custody of it.

(Because your analogy is silly, given that Netflix customers aren't making a long-term commitment to Netflix. The question "is Netflix worth $7.99/month to me this month?" does not get answered differently whether or not Netflix can sustain that model (But of course, to be correct your analogy would involve not just selling those bags of gold, but rather getting other people to invest in your business, because what you're actually talking about in the Netflix case is the shareholder's perspective (BTW, I like nested parentheses))).

Hank

@jolly, I checked it at the end of the day like you asked and the stock was up $7 on the day.

It must really burn you up that with all this unique insight you have you still can't make a dime on the stock market. If only those damn billionaires weren't conspiring against you!

flawed

Exactly.. Cramer to the prick

Anon/B/

"Exactly.. Cramer to the prick"

So if the stock goes down, it's because netflix is getting beaten by everyone and they are going down?

If the stock goes up, it's Cramer's fault?

watch Burn Notice Seasons 1-4

er.. every field has compitition even each positon that was unavoidable!

fluff

No the MM (Credit Suiess, Goldman Sacs)and guys like Cramer (his buddies) are pumping this stock on one hand while they sell their shares on the other hand.

BP

@ flawed

U totally mad!

-BP

fluff

Knock, knock? Who's there?


Dish network, Direct TV, Google, Apple, Hulu, Amazon, Comcast, and others.

BP

I think the biggest competitor to Netflix is Vivid On Demand.

-BP

Anon/B/

"Dish network, Direct TV, Google, Apple, Hulu, Amazon, Comcast, and others."

Are they going to start renting DVDs and have all you can eat streaming? No? Hmm, doesn't seem like they are doing the same things as netflix.

Really???

If you guys would like to read any or all of jolly/flawed/jv42/fluff etc comments before he spam post them over here you can see it at: http://seekingalpha.com/user/883958/comments . Or maybe with his fake company's articles: http://seekingalpha.com/author/komodo-global/instablog

I wish I could copy and paste my thoughts and ideas from one website to another. It would be fun.

Tell you what, if you would like to create your own argument for why Netflix is spiraling down in to nothing-ness I would be happy to debate you. So far your to biggest arguments (or somebodies else argument) claim to be Netflix memberships churn and streaming content prices.

1.) For membership, Netflix doesn't have any contracts like dish, direct tv, etc so people are free to cancel anytime, so comparing the churn to a cable company is along the same thinking of IOUs and checks being equal. Most memberships that have been cancelled are people taking a look at the one month free trial. So for the 6 million Netflix signed up and stayed with the company for the ENTIRE Q1 compared to the people that tried the service then cancelled (3.6 million) DURING Q1 it's not that big of a loss considering most of those people signed up for a streaming only plan. So even if they watched 1,000 movies during their free trial it cost Netflix maybe 7 bucks. So the year over year churn is going to continue to stay high, because people like to take advantage of free things. If Netflix were to change the reporting of members quitting their service after being with them for more than 3 months it would be a very minimal number. So the main reason for quitting Netflix goes as follows:
A.) Just trying the free trial
B.) Don't have the money
C.) Don't have time to take advantage of the service
D.) Unhappy with the streaming selection
E.) The gift subscription they got ran out

2.) Netflix doesn't include their streaming purchases because of contract negotiations with studios and some of the contracts they have, have not started, thus they haven't paid anything.
In dealing with the movie studios for leasing streaming rights for 6-36 months studios don't really care to advertise what they sold the rights to company A for 6 months, because when they are in negotiations with company B they really don't want A's price to come out unless its in the studios interest. If you try bringing up any accounts payable statement for HBO, Showtime, Starz, etc they always look vague and its for a very good reason. And normally in the contracts with studios the information is to stay private, thus their will never be an itemized price for content paid on a Netflix investor statement. It's an industry standard.

The running of the Netflix bears will be over by Q3, so hopefully, if you actually invest in Netflix, your 250 shorts are expiring soon because that is gonna be an ugly day otherwise.

The Incredible Coffeeman

@readlly???

Oh, I'm giggling like a small child right now.

=D

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