« New Releases for July 19th, 2005 | Main | Netflix Partners with "Who Wants To Be A Millionaire" »

Comments

Aron

In the red\white corner, 250 pounds of scissor-wielding terror: The BARBER !

In the blue corner, the 120 pound philipino tsunami: el Manuel !

This is a no holds barred grudge match. Let's not have a fair fight, gentleman..

Ding.

Is Netflix a stock to buy, sell or hold?

Yes.

Netflix is a risk. But one that could pay off if Blockbuster does not wipe them out, or goes under itself. Netflix was definitely a buy back in 2002.

jojoware

I bought Netflix about 4 months ago and it's been one of my best stocks, so i'm definitely holding. I think i'm up 30% or so in those few months. Netflix will continue to do well, and then eventually BB will fold it up.

"Netflix will continue to do well, and then eventually BB will fold it up."

I hope that day never comes, because we already know how crappy NFLX selection is for obscure titles. 8 1/2 Women, Blues Brothers, Delicatessen, Akira DTS, Mummy Returns WS, Brazil, Cleopatra 1963...

Steve A

You should thank NF for not stocking Mummy Returns. What a waste of 2 hrs...

who the hell cares if they have mummy returns widescreen? At Least netflix carries the Original versions (not cleaned to R) of movies such as "And your mother too"

Kyle

"At Least netflix carries the Original versions (not cleaned to R) of movies"

OK you have proved that you are just mimicking something you read about blockbuster years ago. I have both (and like both) and Blockbuster online has more Criterion collection and more uncut versions of films than Netlflix does.

you have to be living in a cave to thnk otherwise.


cave man

What's that supposed to mean?

manuel

Speaking of stupid, Netflix has been caught doing some pretty stupid things recently. It involves their competitors and web sites they don't like.

Read "Netflix Banner Ads Contain Spyware!" for more info:

http://www.manuelsweb.com/netflixjournal5.htm#spyware

You'll be amazed what spyware can do ;-)

dale

I also agree Blockbuster's selection online has gone from paltry to better than Netflix.

Right now Netflix advantage is questionable and they have nothing coming in the future that will change that.

today I went to rent zentropa. blockbuster online has it..again, netflix does not.

trey

I bought nflx in nov. 04' at 17.1 dps and the next day Reed Hastings announced in the quarterly conference call that Amazon may begin a online movie rental business in the usa. NFLX stock sank over 40%!!! I held it until last month when it reached 17.2 and I sold. Wow, I was down a whole lot o dough at one point but I held on and actually made a tiny profit. I believe in Netflix over BBI and I believe Netflix will eventually sink BBI for good. Yet, I won't ever buy the stock again. Just to risky. Buy SIRI or ATYT instead. Cheap good buys right now. Oh yeah, Manuel is a total Netflix hater and he just kisses BBI ass all day. Don't listen to him, he prob. works at bbi or something. That guy is a chump for sure.

trey

Oh yeah, marketwatch is owned by viacom and viacom used to own bbi for years. So viacom is obviously against nflx,(always was, always will be). Don't read marketwatch for nflx. Read fool.com they are much more trusting. Marketwatch is ok but they have some way biased news on that site. Go Yahoo finance or fool.com :->
Ask Ace he will tell you all. He knows the most of everyone I have read. Especially more than that poser whining sissy boy, Manuel.

Netflix has not ethic values, towards its customers. If you just like making profits go for it. But remember your downfall wil be that you will be linked to a company of bad business practices

foo

"Read fool.com ..."

a) fool com has been wrong about netflix in every piece

b) fool com's writers own netflix as their disclosure statements indicate.

Anyone who would read fool com for stock advice is a sucker. Why is it free? because the writers are investors trying to pump up the stock.

If you are dumb enough to take fool coms advice you aready took a bath on NTFLX. OK so you are a sucker, but don;t suggest anyone else would be dumb enough..LOL.

CJ

Holding depends on how/if Netflix services evolve. VOD is DOA in the near future, as is next-generation DVD formats. So.. to compete Netflix should be exploring new pricing options - such as a volume rate (number of DVDs rented per month), a demand rate (number of DVDs out at one time), a customer charge (to cover fixed overhead), and perhaps tiered pricing for new releases vs old catalog items. Consumers look for the best deal for their rental pattern, and the more choice they have, the better chance they will pick Netflix. BTW, I have zero shares.

manuel

"BTW, I have zero shares."

If we only knew.

A volume rate would kill NFLX in a minute. Thankfully, volume rate and demand rate would never ever be adopted by NFLX.

VOD will be onstream in major metros in about 18 months, especially with new testing of 100mps highly successful (a full dvd in about 12 minutes)

Howard Deaniac

Sell. Netflix is engaging in shoddy business behavior and is going to collapse.

I would not say "shoddy business behavior." I don't see that in the article either.

I do agree that NTFX has some serious problems that have killed other companies with the same model.

There is maybe two years before we start seeing heavy penetration of video over broadband.

I have a 7mps FOIS for my inernet access. it is $30 a month. Two years go I had .7mps, one tenth the speed, for the same price. Seven mps means a 5gb (the curent aveage film in full dvd definition) film takes me about 4 hours to download, ie overnight or less, which already beats by mail service. 100 mps means a fraction of that.
(see http://digital-lifestyles.info/display_page.asp?section=distribution&id=2412
and http://news.zdnet.com/2100-1035_22-5796054.html )

More to the point even 20 mps is REAL TIME stream at full dvd resoluton with no compression, and high def compresswill only require 35 mps compressed.

As we know disney attemmted set top internet downloads but dropped it when 2 mps had a 4% penetration.

Every indication is that the rights holders are going to avoid third party vendors like Netflix (or Blockbuster). The real players will be the rights holders and the internet connection providers.

will this kill netflix and vblockbuster in the short term? no. Is it slowly sucking the oxygen (investment funds) out of the room? yes.

netflix is a scamming piece of sh*t. they keep saying no late fees, but they never mention that they might charge you for the lost or broken dvd's. here's a testimony taken from http://webhobbit.net/?p=10

"newuser Says:

July 17th, 2005 at 11:31 pm
Netflix blows. The delivery time is about a week, a far cry from what there comercel says which is 1 day (my ass!!). One of the dvd didn’t come (lost by USPS or some scam their workers stealing dvds) and I had to pay $70. Used dvds don’t cost $70, at most you can buy used dvd at block buster for $25 which is alot since you can get a new one at best buy for that. When I told those looser that I never received the dvd, they told me it was my fault and it was going to be deducted my my credit card. Needless to say I canceled their crappy service."

trey

Okay foo check out this article, and then feel real stupid you posted such a brainless post. Damn your stupid compared to me.

(fool.com article)

Netflix Fades to Black
By Rick Aristotle Munarriz (TMF Edible)
July 26, 2005

In theatrical terms, fading to black refers to the dimming lights at the end of a scene. For DVD rental specialist Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX), it represents a new beginning. The company's return to profitability for the June quarter came as a welcome surprise. Many figured that heated competition from Blockbuster (NYSE: BBI) and a price war that was initiated to keep Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN) away would make the company's financial statements a barren wasteland in the near term.

Not quite. Earnings more than doubled to $0.09 a share from a $0.04-per-share showing last year. Backing out stock compensation expenses would have seen the bottom line climb from $0.11 per share last year to $0.14 this time around in pro-forma profitability. Revenue rose by 37% to hit $164.5 million. Netflix closed out the quarter with 3.2 million subscribers. That means that 53% more users are now counting on red envelopes in their mailbox to expand their movie-watching experiences.

Things couldn't be better for Netflix. It now seems the Amazon.com threat is less likely. Netflix has reached critical mass and mastered the distribution-center process to the point where it can profitably charge $17.99 a month for its popular unlimited DVD rental program. Netflix has grown nicely despite Blockbuster marketing its service at an aggressively discounted price, and Amazon is unlikely to surf those bloodied low-priced waters. Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) recently bowed out after an inconsequential stint as a disc loan shark. Netflix's ability to produce a historically low 4.7% churn rate despite the cheaper Blockbuster option should be enough to scare anyone from trying to compete against Netflix on price.

Netflix expects to close out the year with between 3.85 million and 4.05 million subscribers. Revenue guidance for 2005 inched higher as the company is looking to produce a top-line showing between $678 million and $688 million. Three months ago, the company had braced investors to expect revenue to come in as low as $660 million. But more importantly, it is looking to earn between $2.4 million and $11.9 million this year. It may not seem like much. It represents earnings per share of just $0.26 per share on the high end. However, until now it had projected a small loss for the year as a whole.

It was just an all around solid report from the company. Shares of Netflix had more than tripled since being singled out as a recommended stock in our Motley Fool Stock Advisor newsletter service two summers ago. The stock is also trading nicely higher as an active selection after being picked again by David Gardner earlier this year.

Yes, Netflix has its challenges, but it's not afraid to take them on. The company has teamed up with TiVo (Nasdaq: TIVO) to develop a video-on-demand platform, and earlier this month it launched an ad sales program that will help diversify the company's revenue base while cashing in on its well-heeled captive audience.

It's pretty amazing to think that just three months ago the dark clouds were circling over Netflix. Shares could have been purchased in the single digits. They have now doubled off those April lows.

So what does fade to black mean for both Netflix and theater? In both cases, the desired result is a round of applause.

shut up, you foo netflix investor. the reason they added subscribers because of walmart transferring all of theirs to netflix. in the long run netflix will be long gone many experts agree. sure, that's what they're trying to do, to pocket more money then run like many other fraudelent businesses those days. YOU ARE THE ONE WHO IS STUPID,

josh

I certainly do agree that Netflix is a scamming piece of s**t. I too see Netflix spiraling down in the future. I mean, lets face it, for a $600 plus million revenue they have a very miserable profit, it could take very little for them to go in the red ink. They keep mentioning their Tivo deal just to keep people interested in their company. The thing is there have been lawsuits against Tivo for piracy, so not many movie studios are that foolish to sacrifice their DVD sales profits for some stupid video on demand. There's just too much money to be made in DVD sales. Even Reed Hasting mentioned it would take them about ten years for movie studios to start allowing Video on Demand. Come on Trev, you don't think people here are that stupid to believe your "marketing". You just can't make a rock roll by itself uphill just on that.

trey,
if you want to advertise netflix so that more people will belive in their company so you could make more money in their stock manipulating, just post your opinion in some stocks magazine. But I'll tell you that, almost none of the authors over there are millions from trading stocks. you make money trading stocks by choosing the right ones, not by foolishly trying to convice people to but that particular company's stock.

Kevin

The issue here is not about spyware or obscure movie selection... Its economics. I would not say that investing in NF is stupid, but there is some risk. NF is investing heavily in distribution centers which is adding a lot of cost to their books. Once NF has these centers built out however, they won't have to keep spending that sort of money. If their sales keep rising 54% and subscirbers rising 56% as in the first quarter of 2005, eventually NF will make a profit. There may be several smaller companies trying to compete but they will have a hard time since NF already has 3 million subscribers. Walmart only had 100K subscribers and realized they couldn't compete so they traded subscribers for advertising. I see a strong potential in NF. Biggest challenge is Blockbuster of course. Any dotcom only company is a risky investment. But risk is what investing is all about.

The comments to this entry are closed.

Sponsors

Third-Party Netflix Sites