Is Netflix Really Doomed?

Tim Beyers on The Fool wonders Is Netflix Doomed?  

So if we're only now seeing the death of CDs, isn't it fair to think that DVDs -- and DVD-by-mail -- have plenty of fight left, like an aging boxer who still packs a wicked right cross? Most of the video download services operating today first arrived in 2006.

Netflix, meanwhile, is charging a premium for Blu-ray rentals and quietly taking ever-bigger bites of the DVD rental market:

 

What do you think? Is Netflix doomed or will they survive the transition to online streaming?

Thanks to Mannydr2 for sending this in.

Comments

[AJ]

Survive the transition? They're practically creating it! heh

[Mark]

As long as the quality of streaming remains relatively poor than Netflix the DVD supplier has nothing to worry about. It's when HD quality streaming becomes the norm (something broadband providers will resist to the death) that DVD usage will decline noticeably. Therefor the overall tone of this article, and indeed the use of the word "doomed" is beyond silly and ridiculously premature.

[joshhyde]

This is a joke, right?

[Becky]

Yes.

[Nialla]

It will be a while until DVD rentals, either by mail, in stores or via vending machines, will die.

The reason is quite simple: A lot of Americans do not have access to high-speed. In rural areas, you have to pay a lot for the equipment (because the infrastructure isn't already in place) and then the monthly bill on top of that, so many are still on dial-up. The mail works just fine though. *g*

[Alex]

Netflix streaming is the only reasonably priced, easy to use at your TV service on the market right now (Apple TV, VUdu, Xbox Marketplace have all priced themselves out of reach). Regardless of the fact disk based movie media is going to be around for a long while yet (there's a huge difference between 3 MB for a song and 30 GB for a movie) Netflix is primed to come out on top of the new market of easy to use, streaming to your TV.

[Nathan]

I think I remember an interview a little while ago an interview with the CEO when they asked him if netflix was going to handle the transition to streaming dvd. And he said something like "We named it netflix, not wesendyourdvdsbymailflix"

I think they are going to be fine.

[Tino]

I read the comments on that page and really feel sorry for the guy who claims that 80% of the movies he receives from Netflix are damaged. 80%!

I haven't been able to find where the deleted scenes and other extras can be accessed via streaming on Netflix. If I have 200 movies in my queue, why would I need streaming?

[PLB]

It's the management dummy! Not the technology.

The DVD technology is indeed fading. Blu-ray and streaming will become more important in the future. Some company or companies will prosper in that new environment. NetFlix was built on the DVD and they will indeed need to adjust. Can they do it?

Who knows?

[BR]

@Mark:

"Therefor the overall tone of this article, and indeed the use of the word "doomed" is beyond silly and ridiculously premature."

You didn't actually read the article, did you?

[Lee]

As long as the studios limit which movies can be streamed, Netflix will still be doing a lot of DVD shipments!

[Frank]

DVD's seem to be the cheapest way for me to see recent releases. It seems that the business model is such that it will be the cheapest for many, many years. Although it IS CHEAPER to use the internet everyone seems to want to mark up that product for higher profits, meaning lower value for us. Is there a service that will allow me to pay $20.00 or so a month and get 12+ recent release DVD's? I don't think so and don't see it in the near future, and most new services I see wouldn't be developed if that were in the cards.

[Frank]

"get 12+ recent release DVD's?"
I meant "to watch 12 recent release movies/shows?"

[Bart]

Netflix has done a good job so far in adapting to the changing technological environment. I don't see them having a problem adjusting to whatever changes occur in the future.

[Mark]

@BR

Did you?

[BR]

@Mark:

Yeah, I did. And that's why I was asking you. Because your comment indicates that you think the article was predicting doom for "Netflix the DVD provider," when it was actually doing just the opposite.

[Nick]

The death of CDs?!?!?!?!
what sort of world is the author living in? I would much rahter watch my blu-ray/DVD netflix on my 40" tv than stream them to a set top box.
The quality just isnt there and I dont see blu-ray quality streaming quickly anytime soon. Everyone is thinking that everything is going digital, but visit a store and thats the way that you will see movies being sold ... (gasp) omg on cds !!

[Pam]

I don't think DVDs will fade out anytime soon. Personally I don't like streaming movies online because I don't want to feel strapped to my computer and I like having physical copies of things I own not digital copies.

[carol k irvin]

my husband and i have a speed speed internet connection and a booster for that which we also get from the cable co for about an extra $9 a month. ever since i got him the roku player for netflix, he uses nothing else. it looks perfect on our tv monitor, streams beautifully. he never even opens a dvd anymore. our tv now does nothing but play streaming nextflix and dvds. we don't have any tv connection and don't miss it. i tend to use my macbook and ipods-iphone for everything: every media, including ebooks. we have two macbooks, a tv set, several ipods and an iphone. that's all we need with a cable internet connection