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Comments

Kilroy

Purely on my own opinion, I don't think the rental window will affect sales. Those who want to watch new releases should see them in theaters.

However, I do agree with the analyst that the cheapest plan with streaming will eventually be the most popular plan. This probably won't happen for two years -- there aren't enough consumers able to stream movies (or enough popular streaming movies) to make it feasible to ditch the DVD plans in favor of only streaming. But that is changing quickly, and two years seems a reasonable expiration date.

What I would like is for Netflix to do a better job of notifying the consumer when a title does become available. Currently it moves to the end of your queue -- it should either be configurable or they should email you so you can move it to the top of your queue if you want. The bottom of my queue is where my "most rejected" movies go -- and newly available movies don't fit that bill!

thinkwatchthink

I have been far more interested in old TV shows than new releases, so the delay doesn't bother me. There are too many other things to rent and if I need a particular film on occasion there are other options. I suppose some of it may depend on whether Netflix still has new customers to bring in or if they've saturated their market.

String Theory

Netflix caters to a different breed of movie viewer who rarely ever runs out to see the latest flick very often at all. They aren't impatient or impulsive so when they rented from video stores in the old days they waited for the big films to hit the shelves then too. But there are numbers among Netflix subscribers who are less inclined to wait and are naturally annoyed by this new policy. They already considered the wait time from theatre to DVD a bit of an annoyance so having to wait an extra 28 days really cheeses them off. However, I think the vast majority of subscribers are in the first group I described and have already adjusted to the extra weeks. It's this much larger group, Netflix's core subscribers, the company really serves. I suspect Netflix expects a certain drop-off from the second group I described.

nemov

Most new releases are in the "wait, long wait, very long wait" category anyway. I'm not sure the rental window is that big of a deal.

Dennis

Isn't it true that for at least some members, Netflix must spend more on mail delivery of discs than the difference in plan costs.

Fred

The people who are so upset they won't be able to get new releases the minute they're available for sale don't seem to realize that you often can't do that now, because of limited quantities. This deal will not only add more titles to the streaming -- which is clearly the direction Netflix, if not the business, is headed -- and add more quantities of the physical discs after the 28 days.

That said, the retailers like Redbox (who can rent Warner's DVDs during that window) might hurt Netflix -- if only in that, by the time the month's over, people who will have wanted to see a Warner movie will have.

andyg8180

Patcher is a piece of crap... i lost all respect for him a couple years back during the peak of the whole PS3 vs 360 war... He either says things that dont make sense, or says things people already have assumed except in his own words so he can get paid... Someone needs to kick him to the unemployment line...

Whats going to hurt netflix is if they lose out on Watch Instant titles or don't repopulate with worthwhile TV shows and movies...

Heres how i see it... People keep their netflix... run to Redbox and rent the warner bros movie... wait for all other movies on netflix...

It doesnt hurt netflix.. Thats just one less title they have to properly stock...

Elizabeth

I think it will hurt netflix. Those who canceled or downgraded their rental plan in order to use the saving to rent at redbox will have some impact. While netflix won't have to buy as many Warner titles, they also won't have the same revenue stream coming in. Additionally, this hurts the brand. The primary benefit of Netflix is that it is supposed to make it easier to rent movies, but this deal makes it more difficult for those that like new/newer releases. At some point, you might find more people moving everything to Blockbuster or Redbox because it is just more convenient for them.

Scott

re: “The new release window may erode Netflix’s market share in favor of Redbox in the future, as the latter can secure new titles through retail workarounds,”

There is a bad assumption there... that Netflix's core audience is someone who cares about getting new releases as quickly as possible. Anyone like that is already not a Netflix fan. As Fred points out, new releases have always tended to have big waits. (In some cases, the new plan with even improve the situation.)

No one subscribes to Netflix for reliable quick access to new releases as it is. If someone is big into new releases, they are probably already using blockbuster and/or redbox in addition to or instead of netflix. It's not netflix's primary market, it's not their strength.

re: "downward pressure on average revenue per subscriber as increasing numbers of members join just for streaming and not DVD/Blu-ray Disc rentals."

Revenue per subscriber is not nearly as important as profit per subscriber. If, for example, they lose a bunch of $16.99 3-out users to the lowest streaming plan of $8.99, and many of those users really just care about streaming and hardly turn around physical disks at all, they might well be making more actual dollars on that customer despite lower revenue.

Overall, it looks like another typical wall street analysis of a company by someone who doesn't know the industry.

Kenny Johnson

I say Nope. Another analyst argued that Netflix is gaining 750,000 subscribers a year because it's efforts to put it's streaming service on multiple devices. The more streaming they offer, the more people will subscribe. I re-joined Netflix specifically for the ability to stream. I just increased my rentals from 1 disc to 3.

Redbox is cool, but also kinda inconvenient. once when I rented I was too lazy to return, so my $1 rental became a $6 rental. I would have been better off using Amazon VOD -- and could have even watched it in Hi-def.

Scott

re: "Redbox is cool, but also kinda inconvenient. once when I rented I was too lazy to return, so my $1 rental became a $6 rental."

Yes, people's normal schedules often won't take them to the redbox kiosk two days in a row, I'm sure plenty of rentals end up being multi-day.

Even if you have the time to spare, it's not really worth making a separate return trip rather than waiting if you'll be nearby the next day. I wonder if people consider the cost of gas? If you are going to make a separate trip to return, and let's say it's a 5 mile round trip and you get 20 MPG and gas is $3... then a redbox return would cost you another 75 cents in gas!

Jeff Chambliss

1) If Netflix starts losing money on people who only join to stream, they can always raise the price.
2) Can anyone honestly say that they can walk into a Blockbuster on a Tuesday afternoon and always find the HOT New Release they were wanting? I haven't tried Redbox, but I am sure they can't stock an unlimited number of a new release.
3) If I make sure I get a movie back to Netflix on a Monday, most of the time I will get a new release for that week if it it first in my queue.

deadzone

Giving in to Warner's silly demands is the big mistake that Netflix has made. The New Release Window is irrelevant.

Netflix will soon realize that caving in to the studio's demands was a bad idea and that what they thought was a reasonable trade-off is really not so reasonable.

You would assume that Netflix would be aware of the fact that the Plastic Disks that the studios insist on focusing on are becoming less and less relevant every single day. I guess not.

Kenny Johnson

Are we sure Netflix was caving? Perhaps this was Netflix's idea.

corey

There are plenty of us who view seeing a new release in a theater as an extreme luxury. Those of us who have a baby in the house really don't have the ability to catch the latest R Rated film since we don't want to bring the kid along. That means we'd have to get a sitter. Two movie tickets is $20. A sitter seems to cost about $50. I'm not claiming a Nobel prize, but it's a little bit cheaper to get Netflix to send me the DVD in a few months.

Maybe people will go to the nearby RedBox to grab the new hit, but how many times a month will they do that? And what are the odds that RedBox will have the title in stock?

I've got plenty of Long Wait titles in my queue that might be sped up if Warner sells more DVDs to Netflix a few weeks later.

ack154

Only part I don't understand is why I have to wait a month for Netflix to get WB movies now when Time Warner is offering them On Demand same day as disc release. Not that I'm going to pay crazy On Demand money to be able to watch something immediately - but doesn't make sense to me on WB part.

Sock Puppet

After having Wall Street nearly bankrupt the entire planet, cause the loss of millions of jobs, billions in bailouts...

We are to believe anything that Michael Pachter has to say?

Sorry Im not buying it. Redbox will not survive buying new releases at full retail, and still renting them for $1. Where's the "prediction" for that business model to fail?

Yet Netflix will spend less per copy, allowing for either more copies, or freeing up more revenue to get streaming content, and Netflix will also get 3 times the titles from WB's library for streaming...

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Chris

I am cutting from 3 to 2 and take the $4 that I save and spend them in one of the 4 redboxes on my 15 minute commute to work.

It's a win-win-win (3 ways).
Netflix will get more money per dvd they ship me. I will get to see four new releases more per month and Redbox will get an extra $4 a month.

jayson bumbalough

The reason that i enjoy Netflix SO much over Blockbuster, redbox, etc. is the extensive library of titles. I don't care about new releases because I have already see them in the theater. I care about all the older movie and shows that I haven't had a chance to catch. Almost everything is new to me in Netflix. I have walked around a video store and left with nothing. I have stared at a Redbox and been unimpressed. the only people that use either of those services are casual movie watchers that really don't care what is out. They want to see two hours of mindless entertainment for cheap.

Shawn

Since I am waiting almost a month to see the new movies anyway ("very long wait").

After the waiting period am I still going to see the "very long wait" status, thus making it 2 months to see a new release?

I do like renting older movies, but it would be very frustrating if I have that long of a wait for new releases.

Michael 61554

It won't affect my membership. The vast majority of the titles in my queue are not impending new releases. When I'm passionate about a new release I go to Walmart and buy it.

Brandon Hooper

The future of home video rentals is a system with an online streaming video library instantly accessible at a moments notice. If netflix would put all movies, even new releases, on their instant list, they could rule the world

Michael Pachter

Delete. Delete. Delete.

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