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Sock Puppet

No surprise... Not really... Considering for any successful internet startup there has to be the "failures" too.

So Netflix = Success, and Michael Pachter (a securities analyst- Think bailout) & esteemed tech journalist Om Malik (he writes about tech) are the failures.

I knew Netflix would succeed, though to be honest my intuition says they are going to have a few bumps in the road due to some of their recent changes. These bumps will smooth out as they rethink some of their decissions after the competition fires up.

wozza

Financial and business analysts have pretty much been exposed as snake oil merchants in expensive suits when it comes to predictions over the past few years.

I don't know why anyone bothers to take any notice of them any more - their guesses are pretty much as good as anyone else's!

andyg8180

if you follow michael patchers track record, im very surprised anyone hires him... he is a horrible analyst and is pretty bad with his public track record

Walt D in LV

How 'bout all the people that forecasted Netflix' doom and gloom with their site revamp earlier this year, especially with the removal of the Friends' features?

Myself, having been an enormous user of the Friends features, never thought it would spell the end of Netflix, but it did get me using their service less and less, and almost NEVER visiting their website. So, to Netflix' credit, they succeeded even further. They now have many people like me (certainly thousands, maybe millions?) who pay our monthly fee, however small ($11.88 a month now), and rarely use their service. We're their best customers (best meaning profitable) even if we're not as enthusiastic about the service.

Personally, I've streamed about four movies in my nine-year experience with Netflix, preferring to watch films on Blu-ray. Since March, I've only rented eleven movies from Netflix. Where I used to spend hours per week on their site, I don't think I'm there but a couple minutes a week now. I believe this makes me an extremely profitable customer for them.

Netflix will continue on, and strong. As their Watch Instantly improves with 1080p and Digital Sound, they will get people like me to embrace it, even if we can't share our opinions about movies, with Friends, on their site anymore.

Walt D in LV

Michael

I don't see why the friends feature is that big of a deal. Use facebook to tell your friends how great a movie was.

Yuriy

When I began hearing predictions that people will be getting books and dvd quality movies over streaming internet instead of dvd or book I thought they were fools, now I see they were right.

Sanjay

"Why is everyone always writing off Netflix?"

If by everyone Slate means "dim-witted analysts and financial writers" then yes everyone writes off Netflix.

Marc

I did. Honestly, when my friend talked about joining, I laughed out loud. "It's a scam" I said.

We watched 3 movies a week for a while, then the price went DOWN (huh) and the quality (speed) increased so that we were able to watch 5 movies a week.

Oh, if I had only bought 10 or 20 shares back when I first heard of it.

chris

I'm laughing all the way to the bank. I had $10,000 worth of AT&T shares (old Ma bell shares) from inheritance. I sold off all but $500 of them to convert to Netflix. This was when it was roughly $5 per share. NFLX is at $140.25 as of 12pm today with a 2.25 gain today. I turned $9,500 inheritance money (and kept some old Ma bell stocks) into a little over $532,000 as of today. I bought NFLX in 2002, I considered selling in 2003 when it was a little over $30. Thankfully I didn't, although I did see it go down signifigantly over 2003. But it did split! So while I had 1,900 shares, it doubled to 3,800 shares and kept the value for the most part. Because of the split I held out from selling. And I kept seeing the great service it provided, which helped. The stock bounced from between $20 and $30 from 2004 to mid 2008. Then Netflix shot up the chart, and I've earned my money ten-fold ~ Thankfully. But this is because Netflix is a GREAT company with solid values and a solid value to the customer. I think about selling from time to time and might do it sometime in the future; but not the near future. I know this: I will be the FIRST in line to dump my shares if Netflix is ever bought out by a huge conglomerate. I stayed loyal to Netflix because of the small guy mentality and will never buy (or stay bought into) a large conglomerate. Once that happens it is ALWAYS a recipe for disaster.

Satorical

For the same reason they wrote off Apple. Everyone is too concerned with market share as the only indicator of financial health.

Guy Jones

In any field, there are always going to be self-aggrandizing naysayers who feel compelled to distinguish themselves from the herd by going against the grain and conventional wisdom, often with half-baked supposition and speculation that is rarely rooted in reality. Financial analysts are not immune from this phenomenon.

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