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flawed

The numbers this lady uses in her article are flawed to say the least....Not just that but Credit Suisse is one of the companies manipulating this stock.
http://www.multichannel.com/article/466818-Comcast_VOD_Movie_Views_In_Our_Markets_Well_Ahead_Of_Netflix_s.php

Comcast: VOD Movie Views In Our Markets Well Ahead Of Netflix's

Operator Disputes NPD Study Finding Netflix Has 61% of Digital Movie Share vs. Comcast at 8%

By Todd Spangler -- Multichannel News, 4/14/2011 5:16:01 PM


Comcast said a recent report from research firm NPD Group that found Netflix dominates the digital movie market was inaccurate, with the cable operator arguing the study does not provide an apples-to-apples comparison between the companies' services.

NPD, in a report released March 15, said Netflix's share of the digital movie market was 61% between January and February 2011, followed by Comcast at 8%. According to NPD, there was a three-way tie for third place, with DirecTV, Time Warner Cable and Apple at 4%.

Comcast said the NPD methodology is flawed. That's because, according to the MSO, the research firm's VideoWatch Digital tracker includes all the movies streamed via Netflix's on-demand service -- but includes only movies from cable, satellite or telco TV providers for which an additional per-movie fee is charged.

If the number of views for Comcast's free and premium VOD movies were included, Comcast would have 54% share all movie viewing versus 31% for Netflix in the operator's markets, the cable company said.

In a statement, Comcast senior vice president and general manager of video services Marcien Jenckes said: "The study by NPD is incorrect. It looked at the entire universe of Netflix movie viewing including pay-per-view, free and premium movies and only looked at Comcast's pay-per-view films. The study ignored 80% of our on-demand movie library including the free and premium films, which our customers watch five times more than the pay-per-view films -- not to mention they ignored additional movie viewing through Xfinitytv.com and our iPad app."

The VideoWatch Digital study was based on 10,618 online surveys of U.S. consumers 13 and older, conducted between January and the third week of February 2011.

Comcast also noted that the study wasn't based on actual usage data; rather, the survey asked consumers which movie titles they had viewed recently and how those movies were delivered digitally to the home.

Asked for a response, NPD entertainment industry analyst Russ Crupnick said the VideoWatch Digital research service is an extension of the firm's tracking of physical DVD and Blu-ray Disc purchases and rentals.

"Our clients' first priority for digital was to look at the business models that truly compete for consumer dollars these days, especially for home video dollars, and at emerging distribution channels that offer opportunity to replace physical revenues," Crupnick wrote in an e-mail. "The plain truth is these models are first and foremost coming from transactional VOD (the $4.95 kind in my cable system), electronic sell-through (a la Apple), online rentals (Apple and Amazon, for example), and Netflix."

Eventually, Crupnick said, NPD expects to include free VOD movies offered by cable companies, as well as those from premium subscriptions, but "they are not business models that are a first priority," he wrote. "Honestly there's not a lot of revenue implication from including Jim Belushi's 1989 'hit' K-9."

It's worth noting, however, that many of Netflix's newest titles available for instant streaming are available through its deal with Starz Entertainment -- whereas NPD's comparison excludes premium VOD views of Starz content watched via traditional TV operators.

For its part, Comcast says its VOD service offers more than 11,000 movies at any given time in many of markets. It serves an average of more than 350 million VOD views per month overall, of which "tens of millions" are of movies.

dAVe

Again, posting a blog linked to a published news article that was mostly content developed by a blogger (Mike, you're the man, in this case.)

Matt Lafferty

@flawed: thanks for the pertinent post. Reading such counterpoints can make one so... jolly.

Also, I'd be interested to know what Comcast's streaming future is given their creaky, crappy GUI. To be fair, though, they have things (since they are cable) that Netflix doesn't have. Case in point: I'm off to watch The Killing on Comcast on demand now.

things

Jolly...go over your numbers again. You need a math refresher.

RJM

I fear that Netflix, after it reaches critcal mass, will increase their prices substantially.

Jack

"It looked at the entire universe of Netflix movie viewing including pay-per-view, free and premium movies"

Netflix has pay per view, free, and premium movies? I didn't know that.

"not to mention they ignored additional movie viewing through Xfinitytv.com and our iPad app."

I agree with them here. They should have compared all of netflix streaming to xfinitytv.com and iPad app usage (and any other 3rd party devices they stream to). Maybe it's just me, but I don't consider comcast's video on demand through their cable box as a valid comparison though since that isn't really online streaming.

Edward R Murrow

Really? I'm being asked to take investment advice from someone with the first name of Tuna? Holy Mackerel!

flawed

Take a look at the numbers and tell me they will stay dominant!!
April 19, 2011

Coincidence or is NFLX Managing EPS?

After observing last quarter’s EPS report with much skepticism as SAC dropped an unprecedented 50%
out of nowhere and NFLX tax rate dropping to 36.8% from 42% last qrt I thought it necessary to review
NFLX’s P&L for irregular changes in line items. For over a decade now investors have accused NFLX of
managing EPS after the former CFO actually admitted he was doing so back in 1995. I will not focus on
the unusual jump in balance sheet items despite their occurrence in 4Q10 particularly with Accounts
Payable and Other Assets & Liabilities. Further I limit the scope to quarterly results in 2009 & 2010 to
make a determination.

1Q09-2Q09

During this period Marketing expenses declined 25% from $62.2M to $46.2M a $16M drop which
accounted for the entire change in pre-tax income. Market expenses do jump around in all companies,
but the magnitude of the drop AND the fact that it did not occur again in the same period in 2010 is
suspect.

1Q10-2Q10

Revenues during this period grew $26M while Gross Margin grew $19M accounting for the entire
change in pre-tax income for the period. Overall GM was 39.4% for 2Q10 which begs to question how
in the world did the additional $26M generate $19M in GM producing a 73% gross margin on that
incremental revenue? Did NFLX magically acquire subscribers that were that more profitable in 4Q vs.
3Q while ARPU continued to drop?

3Q10-4Q10

During this period revenues grew $42M while GM DECLINED $3.7M implying that the additional
revenues were generated on NEGATIVE Gross Margins. Overall GM’s fell to 34.4% from 37.7% during
that period. In all fairness the additional streaming content cost incurred during that period should
have negatively impacted GM’s while DVD mail savings should have benefited Operating Margins.
Most likely that would explain why this occurred. However, as I pointed out in the past the ratio of
amortization to cash content outlays plunged in 4Q indicating that NFLX was under amortizing DESPITE
the negative incremental GM’s. Thus, GM’s despite being negative would have been even worse .

Wonderbird

Not so much a question of dropping NetFlix... I am currently a member of NetFlix, Hulu+, Amazon Prime, and BigStar.tv. (Love the Roku players...) If I drop something chances are that I will start somewhere other than NetFlix. I consider NF the "best value" of the above listed providers... (I figure than even subscribing to these 4 services is still cheaper than a cable tv bill...)

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