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Comments

al

doubt if American will be around in 2015

What?

If it's still around, it won't be the Netflix we all know and love. If it survives it will be under different ownership and will be "rebranded" in the same way Napster was "rebranded" by the RIAA (which means it will suck.)

Mark

I'm not sure about in the U.S. because it will be hard to maintain a low price point and buy quality content from providers that are viewing Netflix as competition. However in the rest of the world, there is little to no competition. Here in Canada, we have Netflix and Crackle as unlimited streaming options. Also there is no NBC, ABC, CBS, they sell their content to our CTV, GlobalTV, CityTV etc. Why would they care if they were to sell it to Netflix too? It's all money in their eyes. In 2015 I see Netflix being huge outside of the U.S. but within the U.S. everybody is competing with Netflix, including their content providers.

Nate

When was the last time Netflix lost money? 1999? To predict they won't be around in 3 years is pretty bold.

moviegeek

Netflix will be around in 2015 but their disc division here in the US will be sold or shutdown, streaming is the future. Netflix will be growing faster internationally because there's little competition.

Nikolai

Other than the Apocalypse in one year, Netflix will have to make serious changes or face someone else buying the company, melding it with their own latest and greatest idea and running away with it. Be scary to think the USPS will go the way of the Pony Express. RIM, I could see waving bye-bye. Sears, bought by someone else.

www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=576480530

Whenever all the experts agree on something...I run the opposite direction. That the press is so unified against Netflix is almost a perfect sign to me to buy more Netflix stock.

I certainly think Netflix made some big mistakes this year, but I like companies that are willing to make bold moves, and whenever they do, it is inevitable that some of those moves will be huge mistakes (Google Buzz, Amazon's first Kindle, etc).

I don't think this year's mistakes are irreversible. Most of the customers they lost were the low-end, dorm room $8/month customers. Not a disaster.

After having used Netflix for 3-4 years, I finally bought stock. Of course, it immediately went underwater. Oh well. I'm sticking with them. As a customer, I cannot see any other choice. Vudu and Apple are far too expensive with their pay-per-item model (we watch a lot of TV). Amazon Prime streaming has a feeble selection. Nobody comes close to the Netflix service, and the movie studios being so prickly means that no one else can swoop in easily and take Netflix's business model away from them.

One financial blogger stated that Netflix doesn't have the cash to ante up to the studios' inevitable increases in fees. That could possibly cause an issue. But the studios are beginning to "need" Netflix, much to their own chagrin.

It should be interesting. But I am doubling down on Netflix.

Larry Dallas

Given that the by mail part of the buisness makes all the money, and LOTS of it....it will be around.

Fred Talmadge

I'd bet Forbes will be gone before Netflix

John Petrey

No one could even know what will become of the company however they will have to adapt,change and jump every hurdle that comes their way to beat out competitors. I went in to Best Buy last week and the store barely had any Blu-rays, DVDs and video games compared to just last year. They were concentrating on the computer area mostly and TV and phone sales. When asked why all their movies were scaled back, I was told streaming had made that much of an impact. Of course the two Blockbuster stores are barely hanging on.

John

I'd put more stock in this article if the writer didn't say the USPS is "obsolete". Its business model may be bloated (thanks to the postal unions) and archaic,but the USPS still provides a vital service that Fed-ex and UPS can't compete with. No, if anything the USPS will be reabsorbed completely back into the Federal budget before it goes kaput.

Fartruse

hahaha! dudes netflix went from 8 million customers 3 years ago, to 25 million last year!! they lost maybe 1 million over this over hyped hooplah in last few months, and stand to gain 25 million+ internationally. This article is just hilarious to me. a pole of 5k uninformed people does not an accurate prediction make.

Quiet Desperation

Well, I hope the disc service stays around until streaming achieves parity in content availability. At any given time less than 5% of my queue is available for streaming. If I include other streaming sources, like PPV ones, the percentage rises, but at a large cost. I know it's tempting to proclaim "the kind is dead, long live the king", but this isn't like, say, videotape to DVD. It's an intellectual property issue, not a technological one.

Also, the streaming landscape seems to be getting more and more fragmented. It seems like every network wants their own streaming. Look at the XBox live update. They stream a bunch of sources, but I need to be a subscriber to some other service first, or something... it's a complete mess.

And don't forget the looming specter of bandwidth caps.

jheartney

Both predictions are idiotic. Netflix is both growing and profitable, and all the doomsaying just helps scare away unfriendly takeovers (which I think are the only real threat Netflix faces).

As for USPS, their existence is mandated in the constitution. Plus, there's no alternative for junk mail companies. Mail service will probably be suckier, but the USPS isn't going anywhere.

Oh, as to the notion that it's the unions dragging USPS down, it's wrong. What's killing their balance sheets is the congressionally-mandated requirement to prefund their pension plans. Let them fund pensions the same way every other company does (those that still have them), and they'd be fine.

ClydesMP

"Oh, as to the notion that it's the unions dragging USPS down, it's wrong. What's killing their balance sheets is the congressionally-mandated requirement to prefund their pension plans. Let them fund pensions the same way every other company does (those that still have them), and they'd be fine."

I'm glad you pointed that out instead of me having to point it out again. Of course most people still won't know what you're talking about and won't bother to find out or understand it either.

But that whole bit about Congress forcing the Post Office to fund the pension plan in that manner was just another blatant attempt to totally privatize mail service. If they didn't have to pay that 5.5 billion a year until 2016, they'd be solvent.

wbad

The 18% who said the USPS won't be around in four years are clueless. I'm surprised it was not higher.

@www.facebook.com/profile.phd? regarding your comment "most of the customers they lost were low-end, dorm room $8/month customers. Not a disaster". Most of the customers they lost (angered) were the hybrid customers. The same ones that brought NF to it knees. They were paying more than $8.00 per month. Stock going from $304.00 to $72.00 is not a disaster? Go ahead and buy more NFLX stock. I'm sure 2012 will be a banner year for them.

@John Petry. The reason why Best Buy may not have a large inventory of DVDs in stores is do to the fact that Best Buy can't compete with stores like Wal-mart and Amazon.com. Why would I go to Best Buy when I can get a DVD/Blu-ray for 30% less thru Amazon.com and have it delivered to my front door for free? Best Buy's web site does show that they still sell over 100,000 DVD's and Blu-rays

The DVD is going to be around for awhile. By the time NF streams most movies that exist it will cost over $40.00 a month for subscribers. And don't give me any B.S. comparisons of cable T.V. vs. Netflix, they are two different types of media. I always laugh when I read posts that say "I got rid of my cable that I was paying $80.00 per month and now I only pay $8.00 for streaming with Netflix".

Crow550

Won't Netflix have to deal with Zombies next year? O_o

Pat

Well, this list sucks for me since I live in Rochester, NY (home of Kodak) and have Netflix. I also send Christmas cards. Hopefully the Mayans are right and I won't have to worry about it.

UghBadName

Seems like there's an easy to figure out how realistic this is -- what did the previous Prophet surveys say? How accurate were they? Were they predicting five years ago that Facebook would be dead by now, for example?

Steve

@wbad They might be two different types of media but they compete for the same thing, my limited free time. Laugh all you want but I don't have cable at all, just netflix and amazon prime. I will never pay money and watch commercials.

Anonymouse

I couldn't find their previous predictions by the same company...

But, here are the 10 brands that would be gone in 2010. Oddly enough, some of those companies are on this list too:
http://247wallst.com/2009/12/02/the-ten-brands-that-will-disappear-in-2010/

Brands that are gone in 2011:
http://xfinity.comcast.net/slideshow/finance-disappearingbrands2011/brands-that-could-disappear-in-2011/

In 2009:
http://www.notesbit.com/index.php/finance/economy/us-economy-14-brand-name-companies-likely-go-bankrupt-in-2009/

RJM

Of course they will still be around. There will be changes, maybe even name changes & ownership changes. But a lot of us will still be streaming via NF long after 2015.

jheartney

Anonymouse

Fun links. I noticed that of the ten brands that 247wallst predicted would die in 2010, seven are still in existence as of the end of 2011.

Also, I nearly destroyed my keyboard over the xfinity prediction that Radio Shack bought out and closed down by Best Buy in 2011 "because it is considered downscale and does not have the reputation for quality products and service that Best Buy enjoys." I can tell you I'd take the service at Radio Shack over that of Best Buy any day of the week. Plus they are the place to go to get obscure electronics parts, which you would NEVER find at Best Buy.

Gobotron

Worst case scenario is that Netflix will get bought by Facebook.
A few years ago those same "experts" predicted the end of everything from Ford to Krispy Kreme. I think the only one they got right was Circuit City.
In regards to what someone said about Best Buy having fewer media in stores, I figured it wasn't just because of streaming but also the ease of ordering that stuff through Amazon or buying at Walmart. Movies sell largely by impulse shopping. There were times just a few years ago I suddenly felt like buying an older movie and went to Best Buy only to not find it. At that point, what else is there to buy there other than snacks at the checkout lane? Also it's not so much that people can stream those very same movies rather than buy them, but with a service like Netflix, I usually choose to spend that time watching something from my queue than something from my shelf.

Hypocrisy is the Expressway to Hell

I think Netflix will be around. Not sure about their current CEO though. Hastings used to say that an average performance at Netflix earned you a generous severance package. Mr. Hastings has been far below average so why is he still there? Why isn't he living by his own words and voluntarily stepping down? At the very least, the board should remove him for non-performance.

Billy Davis

If Netflix can't provide more predictable streaming, it won't last through next year (I type this while waiting through another insufferable evening of trying watch a movie without constant annoying buffering).

J ohn

Check your internets

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